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Autumn school "Dealing with uncertainties in research for climate adaptation"

8-10 October 2012

Climate adaptation research inevitably involves uncertainty issues - whether you are building a model, using climate scenarios, or evaluating policy processes. However, do you know which uncertainties are relevant in your field of work? And which uncertainties exist in the data from other disciplines that you use (e.g. climate data, land use, hydrological data) and how they propagate? Do you want to learn about how policy makers deal with uncertainties and what information they actually need for robust decisions? 

This course reflects on a broad range of uncertainties which could be relevant for climate adaptation. Both uncertainties in climate- and socio-economic scenarios, in impact models, as in the decision making process will be discussed. In the morning lectures of a broad range of experts will be given, the afternoon is reserved for discussions and cases.

In the Autumn school you learn about:

• different types of uncertainties in your own research and other disciplines;

• uncertainties in policy making (risk perception, framing, adaptation pathways, bottom up/ top down approach); 

• methods for assessing uncertainties and determining the relevance;

• the relation between the type of uncertainties and the method to use: when to use scenarios, a probabilistic approach or statistics;

• communication about uncertainties to different target groups.


Together we want to work on the development of a common frame of reference for the use of scenarios and dealing with uncertainties.