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[CIRCLE-2] workshop on CCIVA uncertainties

11-12 November 2010

Identification of research needs and opportunities for joint research,  and sharing of knowledge on: dealing with and communicating climate change uncertainties in support of climate change adaptation policy development.     

Organiser: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and Knowledge for Climate Research Programme (KvK)

Venue: Stockholm, Sweden (see map or general information)


Workshop presentations:

DAY 1 - Thursday, November 11th

Session 1: Plenary opening session. Chair: Annette Münzenberg (DLR, Germany)

  • Opening and welcome by Carin Nilsson (SMHI, Sweden) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION
  • Different types of uncertainties and their relevance for CCIVA policy questions by Rob Swart (WUR, Netherlands) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Why do policy makers need to know about uncertainties by Nafees Meah (DECC, United Kingdom) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Uncertainties in different elements of cause-impacts-adaptation chain by Ole Bossing Christensen (DMI, Denmark) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


Session 2: Parallel groups

A. Scenarios in EU IVA research & B. Guidance on uncertainty management for EU research. Chair: Hans Martin Füssel (EEA)

  • Use of global, European and regional/local scenarios in European CCIVA research by Tim Carter (SYKE, Finland) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Revised uncertainty guidance for the IPCC AR5 by Kristi Ebi (IPCC WG2 TSU) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Uncertainty guidance of the IPCC and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: lessons for EU research by Arthur Petersen (PBL, Netherlands) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


C. (Mis-)use of uncertainty in decision making. Chair: Anna Bratt (County Administrative Office Östergötland, Sweden)

  • (Mis-)use of uncertainty in decision making by Anna Bratt (CAOÖ, Sweden)
  • 3 practical examples by Rob Swart (KvK, Netherlands) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


Session 3a: Plenary: uncertainties in practice: policy application. Chair: Annette Münzenberg (DLR, Germany)

  • Uncertainties in regional climate change impact assessment with focus on hydrology - Results of the project: Adaption strategies on climate change for the Austrian water management by Klaus Haslinger (ZAMG, Austria) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • How do decision makers manage uncertainties when climate-proofing urban planning by Niels Bent Johansen (Copenhagen Energy, Denmark) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


DAY 2 - Friday, November 12

Session 3b: Plenary: uncertainties in practice: the supply side. Chair: Marianne Lillieskold (SEPA, Sweden)

  • Dealing with uncertainties in climate scenarios by Jochen Schanze (IOER, Germany) 
  • Dealing with uncertainty in the modeling chain by Claas Teichmann (Max-Planck.Institut fur Meteorologie, Germany) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION
  • Dealing with uncertainties in support of the German adaptation strategy by Sonja Otto (FEA, Germany) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


Session 4: Parallel groups

A. Is provision of probabilistic information worth the trouble? Chair: Ole Bøssing Christensen (DMI, Denmark)

  • The UK probabilistic IVA scenarios by Roger Street (UKCIP, United Kingdom) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION
  • Benefits and pitfalls: evaluation of UK scenario use by Ana Lopez (GRI, United Kingdom) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


B. Visualization of uncertainty information. Chair: Arthur Petersen (PBL, Netherlands)

  • Visualization and the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour: the IMCORE example by Stefan Gray (University College Cork, Ireland) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Addressing uncertainty in climate change impacts and response options using participatory scenario development and visualizations by Sarah Burch (ECI-Oxford University, United Kingdom) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Visualizing uncertainty in maps by Arthur Petersen (PBL, Netherlands) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION


Session 5: Plenary: Synthesis and future collaboration. Chair: Rob Swart (KvK, Netherlands)

  • Dialogue with audience on their expectations. Have they been met in this workshop? by Carin Nilsson (SMHI Sweden) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION 
  • Dialogue on future collaboration: which opportunities can we identify for joint research activities in the area of uncertainty management by Tiago Capela Lourenço (FFCUL Portugal) DOWNLOAD PRESENTATION